Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 142030
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
2100Z WED SEP 14 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 118.4W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 297 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 118.4W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.0N 119.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 121.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 123.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 125.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 118.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 142031
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
2100Z WED SEP 14 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 127.1W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 127.1W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.5N 128.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.3N 133.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.3N 135.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 16.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$