Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 2



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 150243
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0300Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 128.0W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 128.0W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.6N 132.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 137.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 128.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN


$$


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150245
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0300Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 119.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 119.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


$$