Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181455
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005
1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 115.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181456
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.6N 131.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.9N 132.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 129.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB


$$