Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 190835
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005
0900Z MON SEP 19 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 116.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 123.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190835
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0900Z MON SEP 19 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


$$