Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 21

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 192039
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
2100Z MON SEP 19 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 130.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.8N 131.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.9N 132.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART


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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192040
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005
2100Z MON SEP 19 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 117.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 117.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 116.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 120.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART


$$