Tropical Storm Lidia

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180836
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005
0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.7N 116.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.1N 117.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180846
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 80SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.7N 130.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.4N 132.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 128.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


$$