Hurricane Maria

Forecast Advisory 17

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 051429
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
1500Z MON SEP 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 56.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 56.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 56.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.4N 55.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.8N 54.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 42.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 46.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 56.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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