Hurricane Maria

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 052027
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
2100Z MON SEP 05 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.8N 67.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.3N 70.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 32.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 67.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH


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000
WTNT24 KNHC 052038
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z MON SEP 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 56.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 56.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 56.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.9N 55.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 53.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.4N 51.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 43.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 56.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$