Tropical Depression Nineteen

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 012026
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.8N 87.9W...INLAND EASTERN YUCATAN
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.4N 89.8W...INLAND WESTERN YUCATAN
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.0N 91.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 93.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N 96.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 99.0W...INLAND EASTERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$



000
WTNT24 KNHC 012027
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 34.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 34.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$