Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 071431
TCMAT5
HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
1500Z WED SEP 07 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 66.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 66.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 30.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.1N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.0N 50.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 43.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 66.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$



000
WTNT21 KNHC 071436
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z WED SEP 07 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.2N 79.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.8N 80.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 30.0N 80.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 80.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$



000
WTNT24 KNHC 071442
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
1500Z WED SEP 07 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.9W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 125NW.
34 KT.......150NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 300SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.9W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.2N 47.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 39.8N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 46.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH


$$