Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 34

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 141426
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z WED SEP 14 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN
EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 225SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W...NEAR OUTER BANKS
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 77.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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