Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 36

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 150246
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z THU SEP 15 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS
DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 200SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.7N 75.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.3N 74.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.3N 73.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 46.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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