Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 40

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 160229
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z FRI SEP 16 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED WEST OF
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND
EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 55.0W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 51.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 54.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 74.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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