Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 44

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 170235
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF WESTPORT
MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT TO CAPE
COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH
OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 65.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.7N 53.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.2N 38.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 55.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 61.0N 9.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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