Hurricane Ophelia
Forecast Advisory 48
000
WTNT21 KNHC 180227
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 69.2W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 69.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT23 KNHC 180235
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005
CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIER FROM AT2 TO AT3
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 55.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 55.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 56.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 57.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 58.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 59.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 55.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT23 KNHC 180239
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005
CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIER FROM AT1 TO AT3
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CENRTAL AND WESTERN CUBA CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 69.2W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 69.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT22 KNHC 180243
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 55.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 55.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 56.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 57.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 58.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 59.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 55.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT21 KNHC 180245
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA
EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND
COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.8W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.8W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 65.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.2N 59.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...135NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.8N 53.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.6N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.2N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 63.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 67.0N 5.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 63.8W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$