Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 19

---

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 022033
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
2100Z SUN OCT 02 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM
PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER
COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 112.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 112.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 112.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$