Hurricane Philippe

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 210829
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
0900Z WED SEP 21 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 57.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 57.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 57.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.2N 59.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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000
WTNT23 KNHC 210833
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0900Z WED SEP 21 2005

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUDING
KEY WEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 86.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 85SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.7N 88.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.9N 92.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 35.5N 96.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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