Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 171427
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
1500Z MON OCT 17 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 106.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 106.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

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