Hurricane Stan

Forecast Advisory 7

---

000
WTNT25 KNHC 030241
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0300Z MON OCT 03 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 90.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 90.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 89.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 91.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 94.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...125NE 50SE 25SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 90.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$