Hurricane Stan

Forecast Advisory 9

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 031430
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
1500Z MON OCT 03 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO
ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 91.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 94.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.5N 96.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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