Hurricane Stan

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 040232
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0300Z TUE OCT 04 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 93.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 94.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.4N 94.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 95.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 93.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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