Hurricane Stan

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 040610
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0600Z TUE OCT 04 2005

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.1W AT 04/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.1W AT 04/0600Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 93.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 94.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 94.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 94.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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