Hurricane Ernesto
Forecast Advisory 11
200
WTNT25 KNHC 270822
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.8W
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 73.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
627
WTNT24 KNHC 270824
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 49.3W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 49.3W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 49.1W
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 30.5N 49.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 33.5N 48.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...ABSORBED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 49.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
380
WTNT25 KNHC 270830
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
CORRECTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 990 MB
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 73.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.8W
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 73.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
