Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 17

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984
WTNT25 KNHC 282035
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED
FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 79.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.8N 80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 76.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

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FORECASTER PASCH