Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 18

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277
WTNT25 KNHC 290359
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

CORRECTED TO ADD LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF
TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 45SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN