Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 29

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464
WTNT25 KNHC 312034
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 50SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 41.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA