Hurricane Florence

Forecast Advisory 14

---

078
WTNT21 KNHC 070238
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.1N 59.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 33.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 52.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH