Hurricane Florence

Forecast Advisory 16

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853
WTNT21 KNHC 071431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 53.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 0SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 60SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 75SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 225SE 90SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART