Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 5

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877
WTNT24 KNHC 141433
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 39.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 39.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 38.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 39.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA