Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 11

---

489
WTNT25 KNHC 160232
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 95.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 95.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 97.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.4N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 95.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN





009
WTNT24 KNHC 160240
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 53.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.2N 57.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.8N 61.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.3N 64.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N 71.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 50.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN