Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 19

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802
WTNT24 KNHC 172038
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI