Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 31

---

392
WTNT24 KNHC 202031
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.

AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. AT 5
PM EDT...ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA ARE DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 250SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 86.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.3N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.2N 93.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN