Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 9

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654
WTNT23 KNHC 270249
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PALMA SOLO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 94.8W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 94.8W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.1N 95.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 95.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.9N 96.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN





656
WTNT22 KNHC 270249
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 45.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......150NE 105SE 25SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 45SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 45.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 46.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 105SE 25SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 45SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 48.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.5N 51.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.4N 54.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE