Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 18

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409
WTNT24 KNHC 290840
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 27.4W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 27.4W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 27.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 28.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.8N 30.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.5N 32.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 34.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 42.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 27.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB





945
WTNT22 KNHC 290842
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 52.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 52.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 52.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.4N 54.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 55.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.0N 58.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 24.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 25.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 52.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI