Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 7

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293
WTNT23 KNHC 270832
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 95.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 95.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.7N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.6N 96.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 97.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.9N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 95.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





010
WTNT22 KNHC 270841
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......150NE 105SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 45SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.8N 50.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.1N 53.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 46.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI