Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 8

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162
WTNT22 KNHC 271433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 47.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 47.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 46.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.7N 48.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N 50.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 53.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA





650
WTNT23 KNHC 271437
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA
TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 96.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 99.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA