Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 4

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435
WTNT21 KNHC 281822
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1815 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO
RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 71.8W AT 28/1815Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 71.8W AT 28/1815Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.6N 72.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.9N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 76.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 25.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 71.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB