Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 5

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319
WTNT21 KNHC 282040
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...
AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 71.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 71.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.9N 72.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.2N 75.0W...INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 75.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 26.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 29.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB