Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 11

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600
WTNT21 KNHC 300841
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.0W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.0W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.3N 78.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N 72.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 76.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA