Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 17

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 312033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2007

AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.8W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.8W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.3N 78.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.5N 72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 49.0N 57.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 60.0N 47.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN