Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 010236
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 78.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 78.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 78.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.3N 78.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.5N 70.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 42.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 50.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 55.0N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA