Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 20

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 011447
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF
DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 77.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 100SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 77.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 420SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...420NE 300SE 300SW 120NW.
34 KT...480NE 480SE 420SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN