Tropical Storm Arthur

Forecast Advisory 1

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382
WTNT21 KNHC 311657
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
1700 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

AT 1 PM EDT...1700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE....AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO
CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA..IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 88.5W AT 31/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 88.5W AT 31/1700Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 88.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.5N 91.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 88.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA