Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 141441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 55SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 69.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT21 KNHC 141452
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA WESTWARD TO LIMON.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 83.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 83.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.4N 85.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.2N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 83.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN