Hurricane Bill

Forecast Advisory 12

---

251
WTNT23 KNHC 180833
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 49.7W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 75SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 120SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 49.7W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 51.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 55SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...145NE 105SE 75SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.4N 54.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 145NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 105SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 105SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 35.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN