Tropical Storm Erika

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 012047
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN