Tropical Storm Erika

Forecast Advisory 2

---

000
WTNT21 KNHC 020245
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST.
MAARTEN...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 57.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 57.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.5N 60.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 68.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 57.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA