Tropical Storm Erika

Forecast Advisory 3

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 020856
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 60.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 62.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 64.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 59.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH