Tropical Storm Erika

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 021447
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 60.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 60.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 60.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.4N 62.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 64.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 60.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN