Tropical Storm Erika

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 022044
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

AT 5 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.4N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 66.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 67.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 73.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN